Arkansas City, Kansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

136
FXUS63 KICT 031722
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1122 AM CST Tue Dec 3 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rollercoaster temperatures through this weekend.

- No precipitation expected over the next week, possibly longer.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 259 AM CST Tue Dec 3 2024

Analyzing water vapor satellite and upper air analysis this morning,
the overall pattern hasn`t changed much over the past day or so. The
western CONUS ridging has shifted slightly eastward towards the
central plains as the upper troughing across the Great Lakes
and eastern seaboard weakens temporarily. At the surface, a
surface ridge is translating across the region this morning.
Clear skies and light winds associated with this surface ridge
is allowing for robust radiational cooling, and much of the
forecast area has fallen into the teens this morning as a
result. However, as the surface ridge shifts eastward promoting
southerly low level flow, and the region feels more influence
from mid/upper ridging out west, temperatures will begin
rebounding. The rebound will be more subtle today with afternoon
highs only in the 40s. However, milder temperatures are
expected Wednesday afternoon as highs rise into the mid to
upper 50s, and some locations across southern/southeast Kansas
may touch the 60-degree mark.

Another lobe of shortwave troughing is expected to dig into the
Midwest/Great Lakes region on Wednesday, and this will promote
another bout of colder air to surge into the central portion of the
country Wednesday night and Thursday morning. As a result, afternoon
highs will likely only rise into the 30s Thursday afternoon across
most of the forecast area. However, temperatures will rebound
quickly for the end of the work week and into the weekend with
widespread low 60s possible on Sunday. After this weekend, the
forecast becomes a bit more uncertain; however, current trends
in long range global ensembles suggest another cool down will
be in store for much of the region next week. Also, trends in
long range global models past the forecast period have been
drier, so much of the region may have to wait at least 10 days
before the next good chance of precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1115 AM CST Tue Dec 3 2024

Main aviation concerns will be some low level wind shear tonight
with a wind shift on Wed.

Currently have lee troughing in place with surface high pressure
over the Tennessee Valley. Winds will decrease this evening but
will remain strong just off of the surface, which will setup
some low level speed shear. By 06z, we are looking for
southwest winds at 40-45kts by 2,000ft across all of south
central and southeast KS. A pre-frontal trough will move through
on Wed and will flip surface winds around to the northwest.
Wind shift is expected to move through KRSL-KGBD around 13-14z
and KHUT-KICT around 15z.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JC
AVIATION...RBL